The many myths about card counting can be immediately
discounted. Card counters cannot and do not memorize all
the cards dealt out of a deck or shoe. Card counting does
not allow a player to magically know what the next card
will be that is dealt out the deck or shoe. If you see
a player take a hit on his hard nineteen against a dealer’s
10 and he receives a two for a total of 21, it certainly
does not mean that he is a card counter. It means he is
either stupid, or drunk, or somehow he has managed to see
the dealer’s hole card. A card counter would never make
such a reckless move. If there were only a few cards remaining
in the deck, a good card counter would probably know what
card may come next. But in the real world of casino blackjack
the cards are never dealt down to the last remaining few
cards. This would give a huge advantage to any card counters
in the game and casinos take measures to insure that this
situation never occurs. Never forget that the casino is
in business to make money.
However, despite all the above it doesn't mean that card
counting is impossible, or that it is not useful or profitable
to a blackjack player.
The Methods
There are two methods of card counting. The first is a
real card counting system, but it takes hard work to master
it. The second is called ‘casual’ card counting and is
much easier to do than the first. Read on to learn what
card counting is all about and how to use it to your advantage.
How it Works
The main principle of card counting is that every deck
or shoe that has a high percentage of face cards and aces
favors the player over the dealer. There is some truth
in this, for the following reasons:
- A player who is dealt a ‘natural’, an ace and a ten-point
card, is paid 3-2 on his bet. The dealer only wins the
wager if he or she has blackjack.
- If the dealer receives a poor hand on the original
two cards, say a point count of 12 to 16, the rules force
him to draw another card and he is more likely to bust
if the deck or shoe is rich in face cards and aces. The
player does not have to hit these hands if he doesn’t
want to, but the dealer must.
- With a two card hand totaling 9, 10, 11, the dealer
cannot double in a high card rich deck. The player can.
- A large quantity of face cards in the deck will lead
to more blackjacks and pat hands of 17 to 21 being dealt.
- In basic strategy computer simulations, it has been
mathematically proven that a deck or shoe rich in face
cards and aces favors the player. Likewise, a deck or
shoe rich in low cards will favor the dealer.
However, when the number of low value cards is higher
than the number of face cards and aces, a blackjack player
can elect to change his decisions with regard to splitting
and doubling down, because the chances of winning these
hands are less when a low card is dealt after a split or
double down.
All in all, card counters use a strategy of betting their
smallest wagers when the deck or shoe is rich in low point
cards, because their chances of winning are reduced. But
when the deck or shoe is rich in high cards, the card counters
will increase their bets seeing that their chances of winning
have now increased.
How does a blackjack player actually count cards? Over
the years many different techniques and systems have been
invented to keep track of the cards played from a deck
or a shoe. Some of these techniques are difficult to master,
while some are easy to learn and master. Once again, computer
simulations of the different methods of card counting have
proved that some of the easiest card counting systems are
equally efficient to the more traditional and complicated
methods.
Hi-Low System
A popular card counting systems is a system based on assigning
and counting points to the cards. It is also known as the
‘Hi-Low’. In this system a point value of +1, 0, or -1
is given or assigned to every card dealt to all the players
around the table, including those of the dealer. Each card
is given its own specific point value.
Aces and 10-point cards are assigned a value of -1.
Cards 7, 8, 9 each count as 0.
Cards 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 each count as +1.
As the cards are dealt, the card counting player keeps
a mental running count of the cards exposed which allows
him to make wagering decisions based on the current count
total. Converting the card values into only three groups
of values and remembering these is clearly much simpler
than trying to remember the actual cards dealt.
- The higher the plus count, which means the higher number
of ten-point cards and aces remaining to be dealt, means
that the advantage is to player and he should increase
his wager.
- If the running count is around zero, the deck or shoe
is neutral and neither the player nor the dealer has
an advantage.
- The higher the minus count, the greater the disadvantage
is to the player, as a higher than normal number of ‘stiff’
cards remains to be dealt. In this case a player should
be making low wagers or even leave the table.
As more and more cards are dealt the accuracy of the count
increases and the player can increase or decrease the size
of his wager giving himself a higher probability of winning
when the deck or shoe is rich in face cards and aces, and
betting and losing less when the deck is rich in 'stiff'
cards.
The player’s decisions regarding when to hit, stand, double
down, etc. should still be based on basic strategy. Players
must learn basic strategy. But changes in basic strategy
play are often recommended when the player has a card point
count. Let’s say the running count is +2 or greater and
the player is holding a hard 16 against a dealer’s face-up
card of ten, the player should stand, which is directly
against the basic strategy. But considering that the deck
or shoe is rich in face cards he is more likely to bust
in this situation, thus he ignores basic strategy and stands.
Another example is to always take insurance when the count
is +3 or greater. For the most part, players should adhere
to the basic strategy and use the card count only as an
indication of when to increase or decrease the amount of
the bet, as this is the overall strategy behind card counting.
Generally speaking, if the point count is +2 or greater
in a single deck game the player should increase his initial
bet.
In a multiple deck, or shoe game the wager should be increased
when the 'True Count' is +2 or more. Is there a difference
between a running count in a single deck game and the true
count in a multiple deck game? Very simply, the true count
in a multiple deck game is based on the actual number of
decks left to be played. Let’s say that in a single deck
game if the first six cards are low cards the player will
have a running count total of +6, which is a big advantage
to the player. If the first six cards dealt in a multiple
deck game are all low cards the player will also have a
running count of +6. But this doesn't add up to the same
advantage because there are several decks in the shoe still
to be dealt, so the player should use a true count as his
reason for increasing his wager. In a six-deck game the
first six cards are small ones, the count per remaining
deck, which is the true count is actually just a little
over 1, since there is little less than 6 decks remaining
to be played.
The true count is determined by dividing the 'running'
count by the number of decks remaining to be played. This
means the number of decks left, whether in fact they will
be played or not. In a six-deck game for example, a deck
or more may be cut off by the dealer after the shuffle
but this has no importance when computing the true count.
Calculating the actual number of decks remaining is not
very difficult. Look to see how many cards are in the discard
tray. In a six-deck game for example, if there are about
2 decks in the discard tray then there are four decks left
to be played. Thus at this point, a running count of +8
translates into a true count of 2 because there are four
decks left in the shoe. In other words, a running count
of 8 is divided by number of decks remaining, in this case
4, and the result is 2. The dealer may, of course, shuffle
before all four of those remaining decks have been dealt,
but in the true count calculation that doesn't matter.
That's how cards are counted. It takes a bit of concentration
which may divert a player’s attention away from the game
and reduce his playing enjoyment. There is also a 'casual'
card counting system which is much easier to master and
perhaps equally effective.
Casual Card Counting
This system is exactly what it sounds like – a casual
counting system. It doesn't involve a lot of concentration
or mathematical calculations and does not tax the player’s
memory.
A deck rich in face cards and aces is an advantage to
the player. All the player needs to do is casually observe
the flow of cards coming out of a deck or shoe and mentally
note if very few face cards or aces were dealt. If so,
this is a situation where the hand will probably be good
for the player. So the player should increase his bet.
The low number or high proportion of exposed high cards
is easily noticeable by casual observation. Often several
hands will be played where the mix of face cards and low
value cards are relatively even. But when there is a noticeable
absence of high value cards players should increase their
next wager.
Players should always do some sort of casual card counting
unless they are playing to a strict card counting system
such as the Hi-Low system. Casual counting won't guarantee
winners in every hand, but it will give the player a slight
advantage.
